Evolution’s Speed – My Assumptions and First Guesses

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This is part of a series: How Fast is Evolution?
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In my previous post, I laid out my idea of how to test for evolution’s limit (irreducible complexity) in a lab.  Basically I’d try so many mutations on so many creatures that I’d be almost guaranteed to get a good one – assuming, of course, that life really appeared by evolution.

I have a big problem, though: I need a really big population to make this work.  Based on what I currently know of genetics, I might need such a big population that even a lake full of bacteria wouldn’t be big enough.

As I do the math to find out if my idea is practical, here are some assumptions I’m making.  I’ll also make some educated guesses about what would really happen.

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